Double-elim survival odds (judges’ bottom third)
On double-elim weeks, 61.2% of exits were already in the judges’ bottom third (67 exits / 33 weeks).
Ballroom Data · Artometrics-style report · Nov 3, 2026 (America/Los_Angeles)
Headline
Across 33 double-elimination weeks and 67 exits, 61.2% of eliminated celebs were already in the bottom third of that week’s judge scores. Roughly two in five double-elim exits were not among the judges’ bottom third — a reminder that America votes.
Methods & caveats
Double-elim week = 2+ distinct celebs with an Eliminated result that week. Bottom third = lowest third of celeb mean judge scores that week. No fan-vote data available.
Coverage: seasons 1–35; 3,602 performances; 11,027 individual judge marks in the cleaned Ballroom Data SQLite build (Nov 3, 2026, America/Los_Angeles).
Known gaps: Season 31 Mirrorball winner is not tagged as Winners in the performance table (Charli D’Amelio / Mark Ballas is missing from our winners extract). Seasons 33–35 largely lack Kaggle ages/hometowns. Season 35 celebrity names in the wiki scrape are often first-name-only or garbled. Dance-style strings still include some unclean variants. We never impute missing values.
Sources: howisonlab/dwts_dataset (GitHub); Kaggle brupley/dancing-with-the-stars-dataset (CC BY-SA 4.0); Wikipedia DWTS season pages for seasons 32–35 (CC BY-SA 4.0). Scores are per-judge means on a 0–10 scale so 3-judge and 4-judge weeks are comparable. Marathons/relays/megamixes are excluded from style averages unless noted.
Disclaimer: Unofficial fan analysis. Not affiliated with BBC Worldwide, Disney, or ABC.
Downloads
Quarto source, rendered report, chart exports (PNG/SVG), and the analysis CSV.
